Bitcoin (BTC) has spent over a year in a downtrend since its $69,000 all-time highs in November 2021.
BTC price performance has given investors up to 77% losses, but how much lower can BTC/USD really go?
Bitcoin traders and analysts have long agreed that 2022 is the year of the largest cryptocurrency’s newest bear market.
After coming off all-time highs to start the year at around $46,000, BTC/USD has offered little relief and has since returned to levels not seen since November 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
That has placed the pair in historical bear market bottom territory — having lost a maximum of around 77% since the most recent peak, Bitcoin could have little room left to fall.
This time, however, may be different. Cointelegraph takes a look at what some of the most popular crypto market commentators think when it comes to where Bitcoin will bottom.
CryptoBullet: “Comfortable buying” around $16,000
One well-known social media personality is sticking by a theory from earlier in 2022 — and it’s all about one particular on-chain metric.
For CryptoBullet, Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) still offers a key insight into macro BTC price bottoms.
CVDD essentially counts how much “hodled” days a coin has accumulated when it moves to a new wallet. It is expressed as a ratio to the overall age of the market, divided by 6 million, which analytics resource Woobull explains is a “calibration factor.”
Looking back in time, CVDD has acted as a significant line in the sand, and if this time is no different, BTC/USD could already be giving buyers the best possible profit opportunity.
According to Woobull, CVDD currently lies at around $15,900.
“I feel comfortable buying Bitcoin here at CVDD,” CryptoBullet told Twitter followers on Nov. 26.
“Can it go lower? Of course it can. If another crypto company goes bankrupt or something like that $BTC will fall below CVDD, but not by much. The bulk of the downtrend is over.”Bitcoin Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) annotated chart. Source: CryptoBullet/ Twitter
Filbfilb: $6,500 as “worst case scenario”
An old hand in the crypto market is constantly reevaluating just how bad the bears may bite this time around.
Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, recently told Cointelegraph that BTC/USD could see $10,000 around the new year if macro conditions worsen.
That was before the FTX debacle, however, and the resulting fuel added to the bear market fire has caused him to reconsider.
In a livestream together with fellow co-founder, Philip Swift, Filbfilb thus outlined areas of strong bid support as potential bottoms.
These vary, however — a large “ladder” of bids lies just below spot price and focuses on $12,000-$14,000. At the same time, ultimate support could come as low as $6,000.
Filbfilb additionally noted that a black swan event such as further crypto bankruptcies could trigger a spike through the upper support field, opening up the potential for $10,000 or lower next.
A trip to the $6,000 zone, however, is “unlikely” under current circumstances, he advised.
BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with liquidity heatmap data. Source: TradingView
Many eyes on the $14,000 prize
Filbfilb’s upper band of bid support on exchange order books is a popular target for an increasing number of commentators.
Related: Will Bitcoin hit $110K in 2023? 3 reasons to be bullish on BTC now
As Cointelegraph reported, $14,000 is now a significant spot on the radar, and entries around there are already being planned.
That area would also bring BTC/USD losses versus all-time highs in line with those of previous bear markets.
BTC/USD drawdown vs. all-time highs chart. Source: Glassnode
Not only that, but $13,900 forms a significant support line on weekly timeframes, trader and analyst Rekt Capital notes, one which has remained untested since the second half of 2020.
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ Twitter
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.